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This paper addresses the statistical uncertainty of loads prediction using structural dynamics simulation codes and the requirements for the number and duration of simulations for obtaining robust load estimates. Substantial statistical variation is observed in loads data and a statistical model that enables extrapolation and determination of quantiles is presented. Present design practices and recognized standards for wind turbine loads and safety, e.g., IEC 61400-1,5 require ultimate loads from the fluctuating wind to be predicted using both discrete gust models and advanced simulations of the 3-D stochastic turbulent wind field as input to comprehensive aero-elastic models. During the Power Production design condition the wind turbine was modeled as operating in its natural mode, i.e., free yaw and a nearly constant rotation speed of 72 rpm (with small variations due to the generator slip). Similarly for the Parked design situation the wind turbine was modeled realistically with free yaw and a fixed rotor with blade #1 pointing vertically upwards. Load Calculation, Extreme statistics. Semi analytical prediction of extreme.
source: http://www.osti.gov/
Tags : wind turbine design, statistical uncertainty, statistical variation, blade 1, design situation, wind field, present design, quantiles, design practices, rotation speed, structural dynamics, statistical model, extrapolation, yaw, rotor
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